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Basketball
Gambling Tips
1.
Get to know your NBA team before you start betting.
Study your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home
and road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention to changes
in the quality of a team from one season to the next as players get older
and changes occur in personnel and coaching staffs. Salary caps and free
agency make it more difficult for teams to stay at the top for long periods,
so major improvement or decline from season to season is commonplace in
professional sports.
2.
Value betting - find low risk high reward action.
Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on your bets ...
basically this means getting better than the "true" odds on
your team. For instance, if your objective prediction for a game suggests
that the Lakers should be receiving 5 points but are in fact receiving
8, then this is a value betting proposition. In this case, the risk to
reward is very much in your favor, making the Lakers a strong play.
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3.
Bet against public opinion.
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years, the Chicago
Bulls were onc such team, having captured the public's admiration during
the Jordan years. High-value bets can often be found by betting against
these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected
amount of public money ... thus, the underdog is often listed with better
odds or a larger pointspread than they realistically deserve.
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4.
Stay abreast of injuries.
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance
of an injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember that second-string
players are often highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing
a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best player.
The public normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value
in this situation. However, beware of situations where there is more than
one injured stud or there is an injury to the team's captain or inspirational
leader.
5.
Bet on motivated teams.
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at other times,
may play well above what is indicated by their overall record - especially
in critical games. Determine how important a game is to a team. If the
team has already clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on
the post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win
situation to make the playoffs may be highly motivated. A team out to
revenge a defeat earlier in the season may also be very motivated.
6.
Betting with your head, not your heart.
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on emotions.
Don't go betting on a team simply because it's your favorite without considering
the real odds. Be selective and remember that you will only find value
betting situations in a small number of games. Betting the entire NBA
schedule every week is a risky proposition at best.
7.
Don't chase your losses.
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make
the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup your
losses. Instead, examine your handicapping methods and reduce your betting
amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses
is the single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you start winning
again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go overboard - unfortunately,
like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an end.
8.
Don't bet just for the sake of betting.
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there are sports
betting opportunities almost every day of the year. Don't bet simply for
the sake of gambling - be patient and wait for good value betting opportunites.
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9.
Practice smart money management.
Good money management is just as important as picking winners. Increase
your betting amount only when showing an overall profit and reduce your
betting amount when you are losing. Try to set a maximum percentage of
your betting capital that will be placed on any one bet in order to minimize
your exposure ... many professional handicappers suggest that no more
than five percent of your wagering capital be at risk on any one bet,
no matter how strongly you feel about the game.
10.
Keep accurate records.
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential for increasing
your winning percentage. For example, do you tend to bet your home team
or your favorite team more than you should? What are the current trends
- are more underdogs winning early in the season? By maintaining records
of statistics as well as your betting history will help you to avoid destructive
wagering patterns and, at the same time will enable you to spot trends
that may give you an edge.
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